2025-26 Upper Deck Tableau: what's worth chasing
Release Day Break Guide · out November 11, 2026
Before you buy a spot in a Tableau break, know which teams and players carry the value. Connor McDavid, Macklin Celebrini and Matthew Schaefer top the list. Here's what a box gives you, what a fair spot costs, and the cards everyone is chasing.
What's in a hobby box
- At least 16 of the 27 cards are numbered, at least 8 #’d to 199 or less
- 5 #’d Base Set Parallel and/or #’d Shadow Portraits Parallel Cards
- 4 #’d Base Set Veterans Cards
- 4 #’d Base Set Stars and/or Rookie Watch Cards
- 2 Encased Hard-Signed Autograph Cards
- 2 Babineau Collection Cards
- 2 Shadow Portraits Cards
- 2 Aspects, Dark Room, Imprints and/or Triple Exposure Cards
- 2 Lenticular Variants Cards
- 1 Encased #’d Plexi, Babineau Collection, Lenticular Monochrome or Base Set Dark Ice Rookies Card
- 1 #’d Mounted Slide Relics Card
- 1 #’d Matted Border Card (Gold Border, Black Border or True Monochrome Parallel)
- 1 Matted Silver Border Card
Pick your team: what a spot is worth
In a typical 8-box break at CA$1,600 a box ($12,800 in all), a team spot is worth its share of everything worth pulling. Use these as your ceiling.
| Team | Share | Fair spot | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks | 12.0% | $1,532 |
| 2 | Oilers | 11.4% | $1,464 |
| 3 | Canadiens | 10.3% | $1,315 |
| 4 | Islanders | 8.8% | $1,120 |
| 5 | Capitals | 6.7% | $856 |
| 6 | Blackhawks | 6.0% | $765 |
| 7 | Penguins | 5.2% | $662 |
| 8 | Maple Leafs | 4.2% | $543 |
| 9 | Ducks | 3.7% | $472 |
| 10 | Wild | 2.2% | $287 |
| 11 | Avalanche | 2.1% | $268 |
| 12 | Devils | 2.0% | $251 |
An average team is worth $400 (the break divided by 32). A team priced well above its fair spot is paying for the name.
Pick your player: the top 15
| Player | Team | Share | Fair spot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor McDavid | Oilers | 9.4% | $1,202 |
| 2 | Macklin Celebrini | Sharks | 8.3% | $1,060 |
| 3 | Matthew Schaefer RC | Islanders | 8.2% | $1,056 |
| 4 | Ivan Demidov RC | Canadiens | 6.7% | $852 |
| 5 | Alex Ovechkin | Capitals | 5.2% | $663 |
| 6 | Connor Bedard | Blackhawks | 4.5% | $576 |
| 7 | Sidney Crosby | Penguins | 3.3% | $422 |
| 8 | Beckett Sennecke RC | Ducks | 3.1% | $399 |
| 9 | Michael Misa RC | Sharks | 2.6% | $332 |
| 10 | Auston Matthews | Maple Leafs | 2.5% | $324 |
| 11 | Lane Hutson | Canadiens | 1.8% | $236 |
| 12 | Leon Draisaitl | Oilers | 1.4% | $184 |
| 13 | Jack Hughes | Devils | 1.4% | $175 |
| 14 | Ryan Leonard RC | Capitals | 1.3% | $166 |
| 15 | Cale Makar | Avalanche | 1.3% | $163 |
The cards to chase
| Set | Numbered | Cards |
|---|---|---|
| Shutter Speed Signatures Gold Spectrum ParallelAuto | /1 | 78 |
| Autographs True Gold Monochrome ParallelAuto | /1 | 66 |
| Babineau Collection Glossy Steel Auto ParallelAuto | /1 | 44 |
| Dual Autographs True Gold Monochrome ParallelAuto | /1 | 7 |
| Dual Autographs True Blue Monochrome ParallelAuto | /5 | 8 |
| Shutter Speed Signatures Silver Spectrum ParallelAuto | /10 to /50 | 79 |
| Autographs True Blue Monochrome ParallelAuto | /10 to /99 | 70 |
| Shadow Portraits Metallic Silver Auto ParallelAuto | /10 to /99 | 38 |
Rookies to watch
Matthew Schaefer (Islanders), Ivan Demidov (Canadiens), Beckett Sennecke (Ducks), Michael Misa (Sharks), Ryan Leonard (Capitals). Rookie cards carry a lot of a break's value, so their teams usually price high. Check the share before you pay up.
Three things before you buy a spot
- Compare the price with the fair spot. Under it is a good buy. Well over it, you're paying for the name.
- Know the random price. In Team random, a spot in this example break is worth about $400 on average. Use it as your stop price in a $1-start auction.
- Check the real break. Box counts and prices change from breaker to breaker. Paste the spot list into ChaseIQ and every spot gets a verdict in seconds.
chaseiq.io · Values are estimates from what the cards sell for, not financial advice.