2025-26 Upper Deck Splendor: what's worth chasing
Release Day Break Guide · released September 30, 2026
Before you buy a spot in a Splendor break, know which teams and players carry the value. Macklin Celebrini, Matthew Schaefer and Connor McDavid top the list. Here's what a box gives you, what a fair spot costs, and the cards everyone is chasing.
What's in a hobby box
- 1 Encased Hit (Auto, Auto Relic OR Relic)
Pick your team: what a spot is worth
In a typical 8-box break at CA$1,400 a box ($11,200 in all), a team spot is worth its share of everything worth pulling. Use these as your ceiling.
| Team | Share | Fair spot | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks | 12.1% | $1,356 |
| 2 | Canadiens | 10.5% | $1,179 |
| 3 | Islanders | 9.0% | $1,004 |
| 4 | Oilers | 8.2% | $913 |
| 5 | Blackhawks | 7.3% | $818 |
| 6 | Capitals | 7.0% | $783 |
| 7 | Penguins | 6.1% | $679 |
| 8 | Avalanche | 5.7% | $637 |
| 9 | Kings | 5.5% | $620 |
| 10 | Rangers | 4.9% | $552 |
| 11 | Ducks | 3.7% | $416 |
| 12 | Maple Leafs | 3.7% | $414 |
An average team is worth $350 (the break divided by 32). A team priced well above its fair spot is paying for the name.
Pick your player: the top 15
| Player | Team | Share | Fair spot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Macklin Celebrini | Sharks | 10.4% | $1,169 |
| 2 | Matthew Schaefer RC | Islanders | 8.8% | $990 |
| 3 | Connor McDavid | Oilers | 6.7% | $752 |
| 4 | Wayne Gretzky | Kings | 6.5% | $726 |
| 5 | Ivan Demidov RC | Canadiens | 6.5% | $724 |
| 6 | Connor Bedard | Blackhawks | 6.0% | $676 |
| 7 | Alex Ovechkin | Capitals | 5.5% | $613 |
| 8 | Beckett Sennecke RC | Ducks | 3.5% | $392 |
| 9 | Sidney Crosby | Penguins | 2.9% | $329 |
| 10 | Mario Lemieux | Penguins | 2.8% | $311 |
| 11 | Auston Matthews | Maple Leafs | 2.4% | $270 |
| 12 | Cale Makar | Avalanche | 2.4% | $265 |
| 13 | Jack Hughes | Devils | 1.5% | $171 |
| 14 | Ryan Leonard RC | Capitals | 1.5% | $170 |
| 15 | Henrik Lundqvist | Rangers | 1.5% | $169 |
The cards to chase
| Set | Numbered | Cards |
|---|---|---|
| Cut SignaturesRelic | /1 to /5 | 50 |
| Splendid Signatures Black ParallelAuto | /1 | 33 |
| Trophy Cut SignaturesRelic | /1 to /3 | 25 |
| Vertical Borderless Base Black ParallelAuto | /1 | 22 |
| Borderless Base Black ParallelAuto | /1 | 21 |
| Bordered Base Black ParallelAuto | /1 | 21 |
| Vertical Bordered Base Black ParallelAuto | /1 | 20 |
| Splendid Swatches Black ParallelRelic | /1 | 20 |
Rookies to watch
Matthew Schaefer (Islanders), Ivan Demidov (Canadiens), Beckett Sennecke (Ducks), Ryan Leonard (Capitals). Rookie cards carry a lot of a break's value, so their teams usually price high. Check the share before you pay up.
Three things before you buy a spot
- Compare the price with the fair spot. Under it is a good buy. Well over it, you're paying for the name.
- Know the random price. In Team random, a spot in this example break is worth about $350 on average. Use it as your stop price in a $1-start auction.
- Check the real break. Box counts and prices change from breaker to breaker. Paste the spot list into ChaseIQ and every spot gets a verdict in seconds.
chaseiq.io · Values are estimates from what the cards sell for, not financial advice.